Carl Chetty

We expect a major theme for the rest of this year to be the continuation of the global disinflationary trend, with monetary easing and stable, modest global growth. 

US growth is projected to remain strong, driven by robust consumer spending and AI-driven investments. However, this outlook may be challenged by rising geopolitical risks and potential disruptions from the Trump administration’s economic policies. All of these factors could undermine US growth expectations and increase the risk of a US recession and a possible resurgence in inflation. 

Against this backdrop of rising macroeconomic uncertainty, the most recent application of our 4R TAA framework (regime, return, risk relative positioning) resulted in us reducing the size of our overweight positions in SA equity and emerging market equity, while maintaining a neutral view on developed market equity. 

We remain constructive on SA fixed income, preferring shorter-duration bonds over longer-duration bonds, while we still view global fixed income as generally unattractive, maintaining an overall underweight position in the asset class.