Rob Enslin

In our Q1 commentary, we described 2025’s investment outlook as a complex mix of political, economic and market forces. This remains true, with President Trump’s tariff policies unsettling global expectations and increasing market volatility.

Trump’s ‘America first, rest of the world pays’ stance is facing strong retaliation, heightening inflation risks and weakening global growth. Markets initially expected higher yields and a stronger dollar. However, Treasury secretary Scott Bessent has prioritised lowering the dollar, 10-year yields, and oil prices – a strategy seemingly taking effect, whether by design or not. Notably, Q1 saw a record rotation out of US stocks as investors sought value elsewhere. Entering Q2, we remain modestly cautious in our asset allocation views.

Meanwhile, South Africa’s outlook has worsened. Slowing growth, VAT hikes, load-shedding fears, and GNU political uncertainty have dampened sentiment. In response, we have increased offshore exposure and reduced longer-duration bond holdings.