Eben Visser

The global economy faces mounting headwinds, with the US showing signs of slowing growth. Recent data points to weakening consumer spending, softening PMIs, and a cooling labour market, raising recession risks.

The Fed’s restrictive policy adds pressure, while shelter inflation remains sticky. Additionally, corporate default risk is rising as higher interest rates strain balance sheets, particularly among highly leveraged companies. Historically, firms with strong balance sheets—such as mega-cap tech (Microsoft, Apple) and defensive sectors (utilities, healthcare)—tend to navigate downturns more effectively due to robust cash reserves and pricing power creating opportunity as the economy exits a low growth environment.

Meanwhile, US-South Africa relations remain strained under SA’s Government of National Unity (GNU), which is showing internal fractures. Policy uncertainty and shifting diplomatic priorities could further complicate trade and investment flows. Investors should monitor geopolitical risks alongside economic indicators for potential volatility. We are continuously monitoring global macro data and await more concrete evidence to justify big tactical shifts.

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