Tavonga Chivizhe

Our risk appetite towards fixed income duration risk and growth assets is governed by four risk factors:

Global macroeconomics:

• Bias is towards at least average inflation-free GDP growth.

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1. Global business cycle evolution: 

• Bias is at least average growth assets exposure, for as long as risk of an economic recession is low.

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Global asset class valuations:

• Bias is at least average exposure to asset classes whose valuations are fairly to cheaply valued on both short-term, as well as long-term, measures.

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Global currency risk valuations: 

• Bias is at least average exposure to currencies whose valuations are fairly to cheaply valued on both short-term as well as long-term-measures.

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On this basis, our outlook for Q2 2025 is dislocated from benchmark exposure for:

Global asset class valuations:

• DM equities too expensive due to US equities
• We are expecting an ongoing correction until this normalises

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Global currency risk valuations:

• US dollar too expensive, and rand to cheap
• We are expecting an ongoing correction until this normalises

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The rest of our risk budget is at benchmark weight for Q2,2025.